Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x921b…e267 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-1%) realized −$159 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$55
14 days+$91
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$705
economics 25% +$107
crypto 17% +$78
sports 11% +$265
politics 8% +$81
world 5% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 4 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 50% -32.0%
≤90d 16 +12.5% +1.8% 69% 50% -3.2%
all 38 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 24% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 24% -10.6%
10% -22.7% 21% -19.1%
15% -30.2% 21% -26.9%
20% -37.0% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$749) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$124 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage240d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $14 $17 +$4 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 +$55 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $86 +$36 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $69 −$69 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $111 −$110 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 13 $104 +$93 +90%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $126 −$124 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 30 $105 +$110 +105%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 30 $109 +$119 +109%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 15 $105 +$135 +129%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 11 $105 +$125 +119%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 03 $19 +$1 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $799 +$13 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 29 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $749 +$32 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 18 $754 +$46 +6%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $719 +$35 +5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $736 −$17 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $702 +$35 +5%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? Jan 05 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $1,348 +$59 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $259 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $1,050 +$67 +6%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 03 $1,259 +$51 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 18 $1,222 +$37 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1,142 +$81 +7%
US forces in Venezuela by October 31? Nov 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 02 $1,100 +$21 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $18 +$1 +3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $49 +$20 +41%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? Oct 30 $21 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $29 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,081 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $68 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $75 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $86 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $14 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $13 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $7 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $2 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $2 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $4 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $3 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $7 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $7 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $6 22d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $106 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $104 43d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 53¢ $126 49d
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $105 55d
Stars vs. Wild BUY Stars 47¢ $109 63d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $121 70d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 43¢ $105 74d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Connecticut Huskies 45¢ $105 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $66 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.41 · official $83.41 (match) · 99 history records