trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +16.4% | +5.3% | 100% | 100% | +5.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +15.2% | +4.2% | 67% | 67% | +7.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -7.2% | -16.0% | 38% | 38% | -1.3% |
| all | 8 | -7.2% | -16.0% | 38% | 38% | -1.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.0% | 38% | -1.3% |
| 10% | -24.1% | 25% | -10.7% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 12% | -19.3% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 0% | -27.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | $328 | $326 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $48 | $49 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 23 | $285 | +$47 | +16% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 09 | $90 | −$8 | -9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 29 | $162 | +$62 | +38% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 24 | $99 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 29 | $140 | +$42 | +30% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 27 | $32 | −$30 | -93% |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Apr 27 | $45 | −$12 | -26% |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 26 | $98 | −$12 | -12% |