Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9216…086f crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-6%) realized −$6 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 64% -11.1%
≤30d 42 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 64% -11.1%
≤90d 42 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 64% -11.1%
all 42 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 64% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 64% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 40% -19.6%
15% -30.1% 17% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 65¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 74¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 57¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$3 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$3 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $18 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.48 · official $14.42 (match) · 116 history records