Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x9214…06db other 105 markets active 7d ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$6
politics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% +$2
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 42 -18.3% -26.1% 50% 48% -24.6%
all 102 -8.8% -17.5% 61% 54% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 54% -6.7%
10% -25.4% 43% -15.7%
15% -32.6% 26% -23.8%
20% -39.2% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage341d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 64¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week? May 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 06 $2 $0 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 $0 +21%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-27? May 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Apr 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 27 $1 $0 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 27 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? Apr 27 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $1 $0 +46%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-12? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-03? Apr 08 $1 $0 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 08 $1 $0 +30%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 08 $1 $0 +38%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $1 $0 +43%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-04? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-05? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $1 $0 +25%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $2 +$1 +28%
Will PSV win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-15? Mar 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-14? Mar 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 64¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $4 6d
Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 40d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 41d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 50d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 50d
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 50d
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 59d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 59d
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 59d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 59d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 59d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 59d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 59d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 59d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 63d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 66d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 66d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 66d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.29 · official $8.29 (match) · 177 history records