Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9213…f5d2 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+1%) realized +$265 · open −$175
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%43W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$33
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$67
crypto 22% +$19
tech 18% +$25
politics 4% +$4
finance 2% +$1
sports 2% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 40 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 44 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.7%
all 44 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×54.64 per $1 lost it wins $54.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses43 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)44 / 57
History coverage42d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $134 $135 +$1 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 97¢ $68 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 97¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 72¢ $68 $49 −$18 (-27%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 52¢ $74 $39 −$35 (-47%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $30-$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 52¢ $74 $39 −$35 (-47%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 97¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 53¢ $61 $33 −$28 (-46%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 53¢ $61 $33 −$28 (-46%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 53¢ $61 $33 −$28 (-46%)
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 19 $380 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $516 +$4 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $7.00? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $7.50? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.50? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.00? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 12 $30 −$2 -5%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 10? Jun 10 $109 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $168 +$1 +1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $335 +$19 +6%
Will XRP reach $1.90 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $122 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $167 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $3.00? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 5? Jun 05 $130 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $131 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $215 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $308 +$6 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.00 May 25-31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 01 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $227 +$12 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $185 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $109 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in May 2026? May 28 $305 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $501 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of May 18 2 May 22 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of May 18 20 May 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $2.50? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $6.50? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$124 on the final day of trading of the May 22 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $812 +$7 +1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026? May 20 $807 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $802 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $800 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $30-$40 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$120 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 99¢ $380 42h
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 4d
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in June? BUY No 99¢ $134 4d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 4d
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 6d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $28 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $315 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 9d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $7 10d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $7 10d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $7 10d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $9 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $163 11d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $109 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $168 13d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 13d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 8 BUY No 99¢ $80 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.87 · official $686.62 (match) · 122 history records