Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9212…4040 other 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$11,990 (+9%) realized +$11,990 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate68%154W / 74L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$647per market
Trades / day107.3pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,546
7 days−$1,981
14 days+$360
30 days+$5,930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$9,832
crypto 3% +$264
sports 2% −$60
world 2% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +43.1% +29.5% 62% 25% -10.1%
≤30d 180 +42.1% +28.5% 69% 31% -3.1%
≤90d 228 +34.7% +21.9% 68% 30% -3.2%
all 228 +34.7% +21.9% 68% 30% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 30% -3.2%
10% +10.2% 18% -12.5%
15% ← realistic here -0.5% 10% -20.9%
20% -10.2% 7% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$63 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses154 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 214
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$647
Trades / day107.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will FK Dinamo Moskva win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $11 −$21 -188%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -741%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $0 +$36 +8854%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $350 −$2,011 -574%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $90 −$88 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $0 −$29 -6923%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $22 −$35 -158%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $1 −$12 -1593%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $1 −$31 -5420%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,497 +$52 +3%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,043 +$30 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $481 −$225 -47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,248 +$137 +3%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,267 −$192 -15%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $749 +$11 +1%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $593 −$212 -36%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $858 +$196 +23%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $249 −$124 -50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $501 +$3 +1%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $221 +$21 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $252 +$2 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $521 +$59 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $486 +$28 +6%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,474 +$31 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $122 +$24 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $96 +$26 +27%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $256 +$31 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,999 +$42 +2%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,541 +$32 +2%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $216 +$38 +17%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $421 +$103 +24%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $245 −$33 -14%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $770 +$52 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $515 +$117 +23%
Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will Vaasan Palloseura win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $192 −$22 -12%
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $243 −$17 -7%
Will Tampereen Ilves win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $248 +$10 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 51¢ $531 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $249 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $244 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $241 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $254 27m
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $281 33m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $174 34m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $62 34m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $13 34m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 34m
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $13 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,392 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $100 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $59 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $249 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $191 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $171 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $776 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records