Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x920e…9efa politics 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% $0
sports 16% −$2
other 13% −$1
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 62 -6.6% -15.5% 16% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage278d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $160 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $6 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $79 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $1 $0 -31%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $80 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $81 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $330 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $85 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $84 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 07 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $78 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $78 119d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 135d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 146d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 147d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 148d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 149d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 150d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $77 151d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $77 152d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 154d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 155d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 156d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 156d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $79 158d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $80 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $80 159d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 159d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 160d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 160d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $78 160d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $78 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.88 · official $78.88 (match) · 270 history records