Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
92 0x920d…234c world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$8
other 23% −$2
sports 21% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -14.3% -22.4% 14% 0% -10.3%
all 14 -14.3% -22.4% 14% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -29.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -36.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -42.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage78d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $366 $366 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $376 −$8 -2%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 23 $380 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $377 $0 +0%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $496 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) May 15 $485 +$12 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 14 $483 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 12 $478 $0 +0%
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) May 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $44 $0 +0%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) Apr 23 $434 +$2 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $434 $0 +0%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Apr 07 $201 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $366 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 92¢ $367 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 94¢ $376 2h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $378 19h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $380 20h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $377 21h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $377 23h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $496 39d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $496 39d
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Ittihad Saudi Club 98¢ $485 40d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $483 40d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $483 40d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $478 42d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $478 42d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Sønderjyske Fodbold $10 46d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Sønderjyske Fodbold $10 46d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $17 46d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $23 46d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 46d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $23 47d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $21 47d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC $10 47d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC $9 47d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 48d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 48d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 48d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 48d
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 100¢ $434 62d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $434 62d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $434 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.32 · official $366.32 (match) · 38 history records