Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x920d…007e world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 51L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$21
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$4
sports 24% +$4
other 15% −$37
politics 8% $0
finance 3% +$3
culture 1% +$5
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 46 -2.0% -11.4% 33% 4% -9.4%
all 82 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage271d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $103 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $3 $0 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $231 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $19 −$15 -80%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $434 −$6 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $119 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $95 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $189 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $129 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $245 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $31 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $167 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $297 +$7 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $238 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $3 −$1 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $66 +$19 +29%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $10 −$4 -34%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $141 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $7 +$3 +50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $157 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $195 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $549 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $604 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $697 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $597 +$2 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $550 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $43 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $81 −$44 -54%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $187 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $57 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $60 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $103 39h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $91 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $61 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $71 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $102 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $80 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $21 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $35 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $64 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.87 · official $40.87 (match) · 382 history records