Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x920b…fcfb sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$358 (+11%) realized +$361 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$299
14 days+$128
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$242
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +47.2% +33.2% 75% 75% +35.4%
≤30d 32 +5.3% -4.8% 53% 53% -1.5%
≤90d 59 +10.5% -0.1% 54% 54% +1.0%
all 59 +10.5% -0.1% 54% 54% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 54% +1.0%
10% -9.6% 54% -8.7%
15% -18.4% 54% -17.5%
20% -26.4% 54% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$52 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$361
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage55d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 47¢ 46¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 41¢ 40¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 39¢ 38¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $46 +$54 +119%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $48 +$52 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $53 +$47 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $52 +$48 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $52 −$51 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $55 +$45 +83%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $54 −$53 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $55 +$45 +83%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 10 $49 +$51 +104%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $48 +$52 +109%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $47 +$53 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $47 −$46 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $43 −$42 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 05 $49 −$98 -200%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 03 $49 −$98 -200%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $98 +$102 +104%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $1 $0 -18%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 02 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) May 01 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $40 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $42 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $48 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $40 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $42 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $48 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $46 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $48 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $56 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $54 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $48 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $47 3d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 52¢ $53 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $49 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $48 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $52 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $45 7d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $52 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $51 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $53 7d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $54 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $55 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $55 8d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 49¢ $49 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $49 10d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $48 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $47 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $47 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $46 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.00 · official $251.00 (match) · 1692 history records