Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x920a…29e0 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$519 (-16%) realized −$915 · open +$396
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 33% -34.9%
≤30d 12 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 33% -34.9%
≤90d 12 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 33% -34.9%
all 12 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 33% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 33% -34.9%
10% -51.7% 33% -41.1%
15% -56.4% 8% -46.8%
20% -60.6% 8% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$107 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,655
Realized−$915
Unrealized+$396
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Elizara Yaneva 62¢ 86¢ $600 $826 +$226 (+38%)
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Crazy Raccoon 68¢ 97¢ $227 $324 +$98 (+43%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ 68¢ $147 $245 +$99 (+67%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 91¢ $110 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 34¢ 34¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 79¢ 66¢ $52 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs NAVI Junior 34¢ 34¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Lazuli 21¢ 14¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs SHISHKA 23¢ $19 $7 −$11 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $173 +$49 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $138 −$135 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $353 −$349 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $375 +$127 +34%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $297 +$83 +28%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 16 $251 −$250 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $59 −$3 -5%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $88 +$70 +79%
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $99 −$55 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 33¢ $16 22m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $149 36m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 34¢ $54 51m
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $13 59m
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Elizara Yaneva 62¢ $607 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 23¢ $19 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $111 1h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St BUY Lazuli 21¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 79¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 34¢ $8 2h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 77¢ $173 5h
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Crazy Raccoon 68¢ $229 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $138 21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $353 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $502 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 76¢ $153 30h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $222 32h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 78¢ $297 3d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 84¢ $251 3d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $51 3d
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Mark Lajal 50¢ $56 3d
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Mark Lajal 51¢ $59 3d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 55¢ $29 3d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 54¢ $29 3d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 56¢ $29 3d
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki BUY Yuna Sugiyama 11¢ $7 3d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 22¢ $9 3d
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey SELL Sophie Luescher $3 3d
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey SELL Sophie Luescher $40 3d
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey BUY Sophie Luescher 14¢ $86 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,654.83 · official $1,654.83 (match) · 34 history records