Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9203…d417 sports 155 markets active 13h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+6%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%97W / 58L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$43
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$63
other 1% +$6
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.8% -17.5% 55% 55% -19.1%
≤30d 45 -9.4% -18.0% 58% 58% -18.5%
≤90d 115 -11.6% -20.0% 52% 52% -13.6%
all 155 +3.0% -6.8% 63% 61% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 61% -5.0%
10% -15.7% 52% -14.1%
15% -23.9% 41% -22.4%
20% -31.3% 30% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses97 / 58
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage129d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$6 +64%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$3 +63%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $13 +$11 +87%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$4 +88%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $10 +$1 +15%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 +$4 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $5 +$1 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$4 +73%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $5 +$3 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $5 +$2 +32%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 5.5 May 30 $5 +$1 +16%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 3.5 May 30 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $13 +$5 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $15 −$3 -19%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $10 +$6 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $32 +$8 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $8 +$6 +82%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $20 +$12 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $10 +$2 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $6 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 61¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 77¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $7 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 83¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 83¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 76¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG 85¢ $5 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 57¢ $5 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 57¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 100¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 54¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records