Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x9203…c11d politics 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$15
politics 34% −$13
sports 9% −$28
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage126d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $382 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $400 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $356 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $470 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $371 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $487 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $401 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $441 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $657 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $421 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $617 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $406 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $470 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $172 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $172 30d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 45d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 46d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $179 47d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $179 47d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $166 47d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $166 48d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $184 48d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $184 48d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $178 48d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $178 49d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 49d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 49d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $239 49d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $239 49d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 49d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 50d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $183 50d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $183 50d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 50d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 51d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $169 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 395 history records