Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x9201…e578 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 747d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26,507 (+28%) realized +$26,763 · open −$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%108W / 64L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$572
7 days+$1,129
14 days+$2,661
30 days+$3,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$27,787
other 4% +$330
politics 2% −$2,017
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 52% -0.5%
≤30d 59 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% +11.5%
≤90d 122 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 44% -35.9%
all 172 +11.3% +0.7% 63% 53% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 53% +15.7%
10% -9.0% 40% +4.6%
15% -17.8% 35% -5.5%
20% -25.8% 30% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$589) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$485 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

747d coverage
Net worth$1,498
Realized+$26,763
Unrealized−$256
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses108 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions5
Markets (closed)172 / 177
History coverage747d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Buvaysar Gadamauri 56¢ 55¢ $573 $558 −$15 (-3%)
Royan (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Jonge/Opitz Jonge/Opitz 41¢ 48¢ $410 $485 +$75 (+18%)
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Daniel Phillips Daniel Phillips 54¢ 44¢ $317 $261 −$56 (-18%)
ITF Maanshan: Shintaro Imai vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Shintaro Imai 57¢ 24¢ $445 $189 −$257 (-58%)
ITF Maanshan: Jaesung Choe vs Aoran Wang Jaesung Choe 46¢ 30¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Kiger/Stalder vs Ho/Reyes Jun 17 $21 +$17 +82%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin Jun 17 $5 +$7 +133%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Reynolds/Watt vs Reymond/Sanchez Jun 17 $60 +$50 +83%
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Jun 17 $57 +$37 +64%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $354 +$317 +90%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Jebens/Vocel vs Hidalgo/Schoolkate Jun 17 $76 −$11 -14%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar Jun 16 $634 −$634 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $589 +$497 +84%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $30 +$26 +85%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $572 +$261 +46%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 16 $141 −$141 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $575 +$538 +94%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $461 +$174 +38%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Grevelius/Heinonen Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $500 +$500 +100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $490 −$490 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $497 −$497 -100%
Lyon (Doubles): Arias/Ingildsen vs Isaro/Poonacha Jun 12 $587 −$587 -100%
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Lucas Marionneau Jun 12 $462 −$462 -100%
Tucuman (Doubles): Pino/Dickerson vs Monzon/Villalon Jun 12 $15 +$11 +70%
Cattolica (Doubles): Grevelius/Heinonen vs Jong/Hermans Jun 12 $17 +$13 +72%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $587 +$413 +70%
Tucuman (Doubles): Ambrogi/Zeitune vs Monzon/Villalon Jun 11 $176 −$24 -14%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $645 +$352 +55%
Lyon (Doubles): Arias/Ingildsen vs Forcano/Vervoort Jun 11 $600 −$600 -100%
Ilkley (Doubles): Bayldon/Schoolkate vs Bass/Duncan Jun 11 $532 +$868 +163%
Bratislava (Doubles): Pokorny/Sachko vs Dias/Silva Jun 11 $730 +$270 +37%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $206 +$111 +54%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Lukas Pokorny Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Ilkley (Doubles): Jones/Paris vs Holmgren/Prashanth Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bratislava (Doubles): Cervantes/Molchanov vs Lammons/Withrow Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava (Doubles): Gadamauri/Pereira vs Lammons/Withrow Jun 11 $471 −$471 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $1,041 +$736 +71%
Cattolica (Doubles): Forti/Ricca vs Grevelius/Heinonen Jun 11 $11 +$5 +45%
Ilkley (Doubles): Kiger/Stalder vs Bollipalli/Hilderbrand Jun 10 $15 +$26 +178%
Cattolica: Samuele Pieri vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $113 −$113 -100%
Lyon (Doubles): Mansouri/Neuchrist vs Kielan/Romios Jun 10 $607 +$793 +131%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Jun 09 $712 +$288 +40%
Foggia: Darya Astakhova vs Lisa Pigato Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Raphael Perot Jun 09 $641 +$214 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 56¢ $581 1h
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Daniel Phillips BUY Daniel Phillips 54¢ $321 2h
ITF Maanshan: Jaesung Choe vs Aoran Wang BUY Jaesung Choe 47¢ $5 2h
ITF Maanshan: Jaesung Choe vs Aoran Wang BUY Jaesung Choe 46¢ $4 2h
ITF Maanshan: Shintaro Imai vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong BUY Shintaro Imai 57¢ $341 2h
ITF Maanshan: Shintaro Imai vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong BUY Shintaro Imai 55¢ $110 2h
Royan (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Jonge/Opitz BUY Jonge/Opitz 41¢ $398 12h
Royan (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Jonge/Opitz BUY Jonge/Opitz 41¢ $1 12h
Royan (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Jonge/Opitz BUY Jonge/Opitz 41¢ $7 12h
Royan (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Jonge/Opitz BUY Jonge/Opitz 41¢ $4 12h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 52¢ $354 33h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $516 39h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $8 39h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $8 39h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $8 39h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $1 44h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Jebens/Vocel vs Hidalgo/Schoolkate BUY Jebens/Vocel 58¢ $6 47h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Jebens/Vocel vs Hidalgo/Schoolkate BUY Jebens/Vocel 58¢ $7 47h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Jebens/Vocel vs Hidalgo/Schoolkate BUY Jebens/Vocel 58¢ $58 47h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Reynolds/Watt vs Reymond/Sanchez BUY Reynolds/Watt 54¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Jebens/Vocel vs Hidalgo/Schoolkate BUY Jebens/Vocel 58¢ $6 2d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Reynolds/Watt vs Reymond/Sanchez BUY Reynolds/Watt 54¢ $55 2d
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $589 2d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $70 2d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $16 2d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Escobar/Kittay 54¢ $5 2d
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Gornes/Walkow 61¢ $44 3d
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Gornes/Walkow 61¢ $2 3d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 72¢ $461 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,498.39 · official $1,498.40 (match) · 577 history records