Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x9200…04cc
crypto · 136 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$35 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses56 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage71d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-04-04? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12) No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12) Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$33
other 6% −$2
economics 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 9h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12) BUY No 2¢ $1 67d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 2¢ $2 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 68d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 68d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 2¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 68d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -62.1% -65.7% 10% 10% -41.8%
≤30d 10 -62.1% -65.7% 10% 10% -41.8%
≤90d 134 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 37% -17.0%
all 134 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 37% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 37% -17.0%
10% -27.8% 37% -25.0%
15% -34.8% 36% -32.2%
20% -41.2% 34% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $5.35 (match) · 256 history records