Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
92 0x9200…1b9b crypto 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$200 (-3%) realized −$199 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%67W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$356
14 days+$280
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$11
crypto 29% +$171
sports 21% +$4
finance 16% −$198
culture 4% −$219
weather 1% $0
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +45.2% +31.4% 78% 67% +31.7%
≤30d 23 +34.3% +21.5% 65% 57% -1.7%
≤90d 95 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 38% +4.1%
all 110 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 36% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 36% -13.6%
10% -19.1% 25% -21.8%
15% -26.9% 18% -29.4%
20% -34.1% 11% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$31 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses67 / 43
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage135d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $112 $109 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$58 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $260 +$16 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$120 +238%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$48 +95%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $102 −$75 -74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $201 −$62 -31%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 May 31 $101 −$73 -72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June May 31 $47 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 May 31 $101 +$25 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $58 +$24 +41%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $450 +$53 +12%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $77 +$26 +33%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score May 25 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $3 +$4 +124%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $86 +$275 +322%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $193 −$20 -10%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $28 −$22 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 01 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 01 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 31 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 31 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 28 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $141 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $99 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $260 9h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $5 3d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No $6 3d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 4d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $112 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $147 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $170 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $99 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $139 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 12d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? SELL Yes $27 12d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.86 · official $410.86 (match) · 414 history records