Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x91fe…cfd7 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,972 (-3%) realized −$3,932 · open +$960
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%41W / 25L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,416per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$672est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$747
7 days+$785
14 days+$1,695
30 days+$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$4,805
world 16% +$393
economics 2% +$60
other 1% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.6% -18.2% 69% 46% -6.9%
≤30d 17 +3.5% -6.3% 71% 53% -7.2%
≤90d 62 -12.3% -20.7% 60% 48% -16.1%
all 66 -10.7% -19.2% 62% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 50% -14.5%
10% -26.9% 26% -22.7%
15% -34.0% 18% -30.1%
20% -40.4% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,495) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$986 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$2,660
Realized−$3,932
Unrealized+$960
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses41 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$672
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage494d
Avg bet$1,416
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 31¢ 48¢ $1,700 $2,660 +$960 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,271 −$1,250 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $2,027 +$1,606 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $690 −$677 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $604 −$426 -70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $501 +$42 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $707 +$56 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $443 +$64 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $518 +$126 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $503 +$106 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 +$209 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,277 +$1,516 +46%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $14,950 +$393 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $994 −$980 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$252 +246%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $996 +$201 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,492 +$457 +18%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $897 −$884 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $1,743 −$1,727 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $578 −$568 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $554 +$25 +4%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $500 +$54 +11%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $994 −$981 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $2,483 +$3,762 +152%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 13 $497 −$492 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $996 −$45 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $238 −$233 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 12 $348 +$85 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $348 −$341 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $498 +$185 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1,991 +$513 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 10 $867 −$853 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $9,167 −$9,115 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $1,191 +$147 +12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $999 +$191 +19%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 03 $994 −$985 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $300 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $498 +$371 +74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Apr 30 $1,245 +$3,269 +262%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 20 $996 −$996 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $500 +$55 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $902 −$902 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1,495 +$408 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $996 +$83 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $2,491 +$1,818 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $498 −$498 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $135 −$135 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $498 +$237 +48%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $1,993 +$465 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $1,735 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $1,271 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $3,633 27h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $2,027 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $690 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 28¢ $178 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $604 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $543 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $739 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 92¢ $501 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $707 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $506 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $443 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $518 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $714 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 70¢ $504 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $4,793 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $3,277 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15,343 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $524 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $471 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $354 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $102 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,197 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $996 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $2,949 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 84¢ $2,492 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,659.68 · official $2,659.68 (match) · 131 history records