Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91fc…0f77 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-3%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%53W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$7
world 11% −$27
weather 11% +$5
other 9% +$1
politics 6% −$76
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 46 +3.1% -6.7% 91% 7% -13.3%
all 57 +3.8% -6.1% 93% 7% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 7% -12.1%
10% -15.1% 5% -20.6%
15% -23.3% 5% -28.2%
20% -30.8% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$31 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses53 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage122d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 27? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $139 −$77 -55%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 4 2026? May 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 14°C or below on May 9? May 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8? May 11 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? May 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 4? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 3? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 3? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ap Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 25? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 25? Apr 26 $90 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on April 18? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 21? Apr 22 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 16? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 16? Apr 18 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 63°F or below on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 10? Apr 11 $146 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on April 6? Apr 08 $146 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 5? Apr 06 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 2? Apr 04 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 2? Apr 04 $5 +$11 +212%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on April 2? Apr 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 2? Apr 02 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? Mar 29 $107 +$11 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17? Mar 18 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 17? Mar 18 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $80 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $80 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 23d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 35d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $82 35d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 33¢ $62 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 71¢ $139 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 47d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 14°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $38 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 52d
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? BUY No 99¢ $20 52d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 55d
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? BUY No 100¢ $10 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 4 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 55d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 56d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 56d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $14 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 61d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $23 61d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 61d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $115 62d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 62d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ap BUY No 100¢ $12 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.20 · official $107.20 (match) · 118 history records