Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
91 0x91fc…54c9 crypto 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,391 (+20%) realized +$8,406 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%106W / 158L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -43.9% -49.2% 38% 0% -21.5%
≤30d 111 -18.3% -26.0% 50% 24% -8.3%
≤90d 264 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 20% -6.9%
all 264 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 20% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 20% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 12% -15.8%
15% -47.1% 8% -24.0%
20% -52.3% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$56 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$8,406
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses106 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)264 / 273
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? No 5¢ 15¢ $37 $112 +$75 (+204%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? No 90¢ 99¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? No 10¢ 12¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? No 6¢ 5¢ $42 $34 −$9 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? No 8¢ 3¢ $77 $27 −$51 (-65%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? No 5¢ 3¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 88¢ 85¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? No 4¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$4 (-63%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $181 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $41 −$38 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $550 +$25 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $282 −$26 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $154 −$34 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $110 −$103 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $420 +$63 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $308 +$20 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $254 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $197 −$85 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $76 −$13 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$20 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $136 +$27 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 11 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $86 −$81 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $472 +$49 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $129 +$20 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $150 +$18 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $131 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $97 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 6¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $4 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $2 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $6 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $4 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 5¢ $39 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $10 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $13 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $5 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $32 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $3 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 3¢ $13 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $2 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 4¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 4¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 3¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $124 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 7¢ $13 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 7¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 3¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY No 5¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $55 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 10¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 7¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 7¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 11¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 10¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.30 · official $287.30 (match) · 3500 history records