Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x91fc…ec69
other · 45 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage466d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $43 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 12 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 06 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $17 +$1 +7%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% −$3
other 30% +$1
politics 7% +$2
sports 7% +$3
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $44 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $5 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $19 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 28h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $17 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $33 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $38 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $5 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $43 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $43 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.6% -11.0% 27% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -9.9%
all 44 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.40 · official $43.41 (match) · 125 history records