Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

91 0x91fa…9dff other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$3,323 (-17%) realized −$3,323 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate59%16W / 11L

Whale WR57%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$723per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$177

7 days−$109

14 days−$308

30 days−$283

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-22.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+6.0%	-4.1%	75%	75%	-18.7%
≤30d	14	-9.2%	-17.9%	64%	64%	-26.9%
≤90d	14	-9.2%	-17.9%	64%	64%	-26.9%
all	27	-14.0%	-22.2%	59%	44%	-26.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.2%	44%	-26.1%
10%	-29.6%	30%	-33.2%
15%	-36.4%	22%	-39.6%
20%	-42.7%	7%	-45.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

19% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 57% (≥$555) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -19% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$451 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$3,323

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses16 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)57%

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)27 / 27

History coverage376d

Avg bet$723

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 27 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$275	−$227	-82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$51	−$15	-30%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$10	+$3	+34%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	Jun 26	$257	+$30	+12%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$226	+$31	+14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$51	+$20	+39%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$154	+$26	+17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$23	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$47	+47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1	$0	+32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$67	−$67	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$161	−$160	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$56	+$24	+44%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?	Nov 18	$71	−$71	-100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F	Nov 11	$70	+$1	+2%
Bucks vs. Mavericks	Nov 11	$40	+$30	+75%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 10?	Nov 10	$39	+$1	+3%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09?	Nov 09	$344	−$305	-89%
Mavericks vs. Wizards	Nov 09	$2,704	−$985	-36%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08?	Nov 08	$775	+$554	+71%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November	Nov 07	$737	+$38	+5%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?	Nov 07	$8,526	−$2,384	-28%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?	Nov 05	$225	−$177	-79%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	Nov 05	$2,643	+$430	+16%
US military action against Iran by Saturday?	Jun 21	$555	−$554	-100%
US military action against Iran before July?	Jun 21	$1,297	+$130	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	13¢	$49	1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	71¢	$275	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	37¢	$36	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	75¢	$14	3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$10	3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	100¢	$287	29h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	89¢	$257	30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	86¢	$257	31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	75¢	$226	31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	71¢	$70	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$51	2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	70¢	$179	2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	53¢	$51	2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	62¢	$103	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	75¢	$1	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$67	12d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$35	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	74¢	$10	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	80¢	$60	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	80¢	$25	12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$56	16d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?	BUY No	10¢	$71	222d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F	BUY Alcaraz	98¢	$70	228d
Bucks vs. Mavericks	BUY Bucks	57¢	$40	229d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records