Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91f7…14cb weather 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%110W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$22
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 105 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 117 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×20.9 per $1 lost it wins $20.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses110 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage133d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $393 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $405 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $414 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $411 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $365 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $461 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $468 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $358 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $498 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $443 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 5? Jun 06 $292 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 5? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 4? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $444 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $518 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $356 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $415 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $180 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $548 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $549 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $545 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $546 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $385 5d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $150 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $405 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $141 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $414 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $411 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $135 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $365 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $545 9d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $93 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $461 10d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $85 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $468 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $70 11d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $358 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $189 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.90 · official $179.90 (match) · 259 history records