Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91f7…db4f world 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 18% −$2
politics 18% $0
crypto 9% −$1
sports 7% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 50 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage281d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $74 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $29 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Oct 02 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 11m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $23 11m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $30 28h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 39h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $20 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $10 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $19 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $29 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $18 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $11 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records