Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x91f4…7a5b other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$227 (-8%) realized −$228 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$267
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$221
other 38% −$12
finance 6% −$12
crypto 6% +$3
world 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 +5.6% -4.4% 44% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 16 +5.6% -4.4% 44% 38% -18.8%
all 16 +5.6% -4.4% 44% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 38% -18.8%
10% -13.6% 31% -26.5%
15% -21.9% 31% -33.6%
20% -29.6% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$101 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage15d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $490 −$483 -99%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $186 −$36 -19%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $77 −$20 -26%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $29 −$2 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $243 +$139 +57%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $240 +$206 +86%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $57 +$88 +155%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $139 +$94 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $75 +$64 +86%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $100 −$25 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 06 $172 −$12 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $168 +$3 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $224 +$46 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 39m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $123 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $150 8d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 47¢ $151 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $56 8d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $56 8d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 57¢ $96 8d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 32¢ $96 8d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 56¢ $90 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $101 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $260 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $47 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $135 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 88¢ $382 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $142 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 9d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) SELL Cyprus 100¢ $445 9d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Cyprus 53¢ $74 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.53 · official $216.53 (match) · 57 history records