Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ef…03ef crypto 1160 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$11,291 (-26%) realized −$1,199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate73%842W / 318L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,087
sports 1% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.1% +7.8% 73% 64% +7.1%
≤30d 11 +19.1% +7.8% 73% 64% +7.1%
≤90d 1107 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 45% -11.6%
all 1160 -3.0% -12.2% 73% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 44% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 28% -20.4%
15% -28.3% 19% -28.1%
20% -35.3% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses842 / 318
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1160 / 1160
History coverage96d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$21 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$7 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $16 +$10 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $16 +$5 +33%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $21 +$13 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 12 $5 +$7 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 12 $5 +$6 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 12 $14 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 12 $6 +$6 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 10 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $113 −$113 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $81 −$81 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 29 $116 +$15 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 29 $36 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 29 $93 −$16 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 29 $120 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 29 $116 +$7 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 29 $90 +$27 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 29 $62 +$51 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 29 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 29 $46 +$36 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 29 $73 +$10 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 29 $25 −$11 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $17 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $16 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $16 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $14 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $16 28h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $21 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $16 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $33 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records