Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ee…406d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$52 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$5
sports 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.1% -26.8% 25% 25% -11.7%
≤30d 8 -19.1% -26.8% 25% 25% -11.7%
≤90d 8 -19.1% -26.8% 25% 25% -11.7%
all 8 -19.1% -26.8% 25% 25% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 25% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 12% -20.1%
15% -40.2% 12% -27.8%
20% -46.1% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$81 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 85¢ $78 $99 +$21 (+27%)
Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 22 $178 −$7 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 −$3 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $807 +$107 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $490 +$316 +64%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $226 −$188 -83%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $231 −$4 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $649 −$248 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 49m
Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 49m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 51m
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 51m
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 51m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 51m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 53m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 53m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 28¢ $2 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL 59¢ $87 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $90 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 45¢ $21 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 3h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $26 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 57¢ $822 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $807 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $806 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $490 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 25h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $38 25h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 26h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $223 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $227 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.49 · official $914.73 · 37 history records