Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e5…0947 crypto 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,184 (-5%) realized −$5,608 · open −$576
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%408W / 311L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$559est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$9,856now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$267
14 days−$2,828
30 days−$3,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$2,155
crypto 20% −$765
other 12% −$626
politics 10% −$1,407
world 2% +$121
weather 1% −$558
finance 0% −$137
culture 0% −$43
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 22% -10.2%
≤30d 415 -9.5% -18.1% 56% 35% -13.8%
≤90d 719 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 41% -13.9%
all 719 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 41% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 41% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 27% -22.1%
15% -31.7% 17% -29.7%
20% -38.4% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$46 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$9,856
Realized−$5,608
Unrealized−$576
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses408 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$559
Open positions105
Markets (closed)719 / 824
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 105 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $5,025 $4,641 −$384 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner INOX Division 100¢ 100¢ $1,199 $1,199 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $303 $338 +$35 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $268 $228 −$40 (-15%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $173 $184 +$10 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $73 $137 +$64 (+88%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $165 $132 −$34 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $89 $117 +$29 (+32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 94¢ 69¢ $122 $89 −$33 (-27%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No 89¢ 88¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 72¢ 68¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 46¢ 48¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $47 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $51 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 17 $282 +$51 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 17 $54 −$42 -78%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 17 $63 −$47 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $98 −$67 -68%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 17 $51 −$24 -47%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the Jun 17 $52 −$32 -62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 +$3 +20%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$6 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $29 −$25 -87%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$3 -72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 +$2 +13%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 17 $36 −$12 -34%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 +$7 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 +$12 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $16 −$13 -83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $21 −$12 -54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 −$3 -28%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $105 +$7 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 −$11 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $116 −$50 -43%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +58%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +11%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$4 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $221 −$30 -14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $57 −$2 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $469 +$30 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 40¢ $67 3m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 11m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 11m
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 20m
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 22m
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 22m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 100¢ $698 50m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 100¢ $501 50m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $240 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $7 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $27 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $45 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $18 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 2h
Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election? BUY No 89¢ $45 3h
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? BUY No 89¢ $62 3h
Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 94¢ $103 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 3h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 3h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the SELL Yes 5¢ $20 3h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $59 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 4h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 4h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $4 11h
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,855.78 · official $9,854.77 (match) · 3500 history records