Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e2…03b8 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$44
sports 25% −$27
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage142d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $153 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $344 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $950 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $270 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $339 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $328 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $282 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $512 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $458 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 4h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 5h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 17h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 19h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 28h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 31h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 33h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 38h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 44h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 46h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1502 history records