Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e1…557b politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$16
politics 34% −$14
sports 10% −$66
economics 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 -4.7% -13.8% 2% 1% -9.8%
all 134 -6.2% -15.1% 3% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 1% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage116d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $427 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 20 $160 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $375 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $450 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $175 −$1 -1%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $432 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $406 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $395 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $353 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $626 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $164 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 8h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 11h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 32h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 38h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 44h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 24d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $176 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 407 history records