Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91e0…1a9e sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,550 (-24%) realized −$1,550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤90d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
all 17 -24.8% -32.0% 41% 41% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 41% -31.5%
10% -38.5% 41% -38.1%
15% -44.4% 41% -44.1%
20% -49.9% 24% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$355 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage111d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $840 +$775 +92%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 05 $622 +$293 +47%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $283 +$222 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Sabres Mar 04 $196 +$154 +79%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $369 −$369 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $357 −$357 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $507 +$228 +45%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 02 $407 −$407 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 02 $370 −$370 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Mar 01 $250 +$270 +108%
Devils vs. Blues Feb 28 $425 −$425 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $360 −$360 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $168 −$168 -100%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $117 +$53 +45%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 25 $419 −$419 -100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 24 $669 −$669 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $8 1h
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $7 35d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $3 35d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $5 102d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $835 102d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Trail Blazers 68¢ $622 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $281 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $88 103d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 56¢ $196 104d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $169 104d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $114 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $93 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $264 104d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $196 105d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $211 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Kings 38¢ $370 105d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $507 106d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Blues 50¢ $425 107d
Penguins vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 48¢ $250 107d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 60¢ $360 107d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $168 108d
Rockets vs. Magic BUY Magic 46¢ $419 110d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 39¢ $149 111d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 39¢ $520 111d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 69¢ $40 111d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 69¢ $77 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.79 · official $7.79 (match) · 34 history records