Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91df…1136 crypto 973 markets active 4d ago coverage 736d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$30 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%920W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$33
other 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
politics 1% −$8
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 141 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 197 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 961 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

736d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses920 / 41
Open positions12
Markets (closed)961 / 973
History coverage736d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 961 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.02 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Chainlink dip to $4 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $690? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $320-$325 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $190? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $325? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $320-$325 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $190? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $690? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $325? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Solana reach $110 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.28 · official $9.28 (match) · 2274 history records