Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91df…fd49 sports 1642 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$697 (+3%) realized +$784 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%1102W / 536L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$115
14 days+$125
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$498
other 13% +$157
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -11.4% -19.8% 58% 58% -13.8%
≤30d 186 +2.9% -6.9% 69% 69% -4.2%
≤90d 869 -26.5% -33.5% 49% 49% -8.8%
all 1638 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 61% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 61% -6.2%
10% -19.5% 46% -15.2%
15% -27.3% 29% -23.4%
20% -34.4% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$784
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1102 / 536
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1638 / 1642
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 65¢ 74¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner OG 54¢ 40¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-27%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Virtus.pro 27¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) Siniakova 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$29 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $30 +$9 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $54 +$23 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $332 +$102 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $22 +$5 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $101 +$59 +58%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $98 −$28 -28%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $13 +$9 +72%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$20 +20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$8 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $18 +$9 +50%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 17 $80 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $16 +$16 +97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 +$27 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$24 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$15 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $58 +$22 +38%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $38 +$9 +25%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 +$8 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$4 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $49 −$48 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $80 +$20 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 54¢ $35 18m
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 27¢ $36 24m
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu BUY OG 65¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) BUY Siniakova 52¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $72 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $50 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $21 20h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $19 23h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 77¢ $30 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $10 25h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $50 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $26 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $54 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $25 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $332 46h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $22 46h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 67¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 69¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $28 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $61 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $29 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 70¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 61¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $70 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $20 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 58¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.02 · official $83.02 (match) · 3500 history records