Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d8…9e8d crypto 907 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,473 (-14%) realized −$2,473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%378W / 575L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$648
7 days−$6,095
14 days−$5,662
30 days−$3,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$955
sports 41% −$759
other 9% −$488
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 -83.0% -84.6% 5% 3% -61.7%
≤30d 622 -34.2% -40.5% 28% 26% -27.8%
≤90d 953 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 38% -22.5%
all 953 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 38% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 38% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 37% -29.9%
15% -36.3% 37% -36.7%
20% -42.6% 36% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -81% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses378 / 575
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)953 / 907
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 953 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $136 +$22 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $46 +$4 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $136 +$5 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $91 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $115 21m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 65¢ $50 22m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 89¢ $45 22m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $46 22m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 82¢ $47 31m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 89¢ $45 32m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 88¢ $45 33m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $45 33m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $34 51m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $40 57m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $45 57m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $46 57m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $45 57m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 92¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $43 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 70¢ $45 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $60 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 70¢ $45 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $46 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $45 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $45 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $43 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $55 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $45 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 76¢ $18 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records