Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d8…b900 politics 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,101 (-1%) realized −$1,103 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,379per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days+$14
30 days−$1,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$110
other 29% −$1,146
sports 16% +$164
world 3% +$1
culture 3% −$8
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$37
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -4.5% -13.6% 11% 8% -12.6%
≤90d 104 -6.9% -15.8% 10% 7% -10.6%
all 150 +1.0% -8.6% 18% 15% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 15% -10.0%
10% -17.4% 13% -18.6%
15% -25.4% 11% -26.5%
20% -32.7% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,616) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$21 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$1,103
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,379
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $175 $177 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $587 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,134 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,601 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $58 +$39 +67%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $849 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $54 +$38 +70%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,105 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,088 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,974 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $247 +$1 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $614 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $6,436 −$7 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,649 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $57 +$57 +101%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $287 $0 -0%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $1,361 −$1,361 -100%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,739 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,720 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $3,664 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $586 14m
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $587 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $758 42h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $759 43h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $735 44h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $736 46h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $764 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $756 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $756 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $762 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $785 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $786 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $652 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $653 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $658 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $659 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $525 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $525 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $175 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $750 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $751 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $738 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $739 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $798 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $799 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $58 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.00 · official $177.00 (match) · 501 history records