Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d7…fba6 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+4%) realized +$54 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -1.3%
≤30d 5 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -1.3%
≤90d 5 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -1.3%
all 5 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 40% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 40% -10.8%
15% -42.0% 40% -19.4%
20% -47.7% 40% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Hurkacz 62¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $61 +$63 +102%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$18 +83%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $20 −$6 -31%
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 62¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 49¢ $124 4h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 41¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 38¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 37¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 35¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 35¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 35¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 12¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 11¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 54¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 52¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 34¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 33¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 34¢ $15 8h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 34¢ $5 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $22 27h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Karen Khachanov 63¢ $3 27h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Karen Khachanov 74¢ $7 27h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Karen Khachanov 69¢ $3 27h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 67¢ $3 28h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 68¢ $14 28h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 67¢ $3 28h
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Khachanov 15¢ $1 28h
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Khachanov 19¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 31 history records