Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d5…8a03 sports 1188 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$922 (-10%) realized −$548 · open −$374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%545W / 772L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$432
7 days−$632
14 days−$712
30 days−$1,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$304
crypto 38% −$343
world 7% −$421
other 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -99.0% -99.1% 1% 1% -97.9%
≤30d 762 -43.3% -48.7% 28% 24% -44.0%
≤90d 1317 -14.0% -22.2% 41% 38% -20.0%
all 1317 -14.0% -22.2% 41% 38% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 38% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 34% -27.7%
15% -36.5% 30% -34.7%
20% -42.7% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$915
Realized−$548
Unrealized−$374
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses545 / 772
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1317 / 1188
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $202 $171 −$31 (-15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 33¢ 30¢ $177 $164 −$13 (-8%)
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Crazy Raccoon 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Diane Parry 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 60¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 38¢ 30¢ $98 $79 −$19 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $202 $79 −$124 (-61%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+19%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 1¢ $200 $9 −$191 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs French Flair - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
ELH: Sparta Prague vs. Plzen Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubrovnik: Lola Radivojevic vs Alina Charaeva Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Aguilar vs. Houkes: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucaramanga: Samuel Linde vs Christopher Li Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Sarah Rakotomanga vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Naples: Hamad Medjedovic vs Hynek Barton Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Tiafoe Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Paulo: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Dutra da Silva Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-03-23? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs Mboko Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-03-23? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubrovnik: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Sao Paulo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Alicante: Dali Blanch vs Justin Engel Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Sao Paulo: Gustavo Heide vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Maristany vs Erjavec Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Morelia: James Duckworth vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Louisville Cardinals (W) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Paulo: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Hugo Dellien Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 116.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
NL: Ajoie vs. Ambri-Piotta Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-24? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-03-23? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Split: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Daniel Michalski Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanxi Loongs Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Shevchenko vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs Sinner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $96 25m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 76¢ $101 33m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $100 45m
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY Crazy Raccoon 93¢ $90 1h
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY Crazy Raccoon 93¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 38¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $98 3h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 61¢ $97 4h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY Mentality Monster 66¢ $10 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 33¢ $177 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $200 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 12¢ $200 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $202 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $202 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $915.35 · official $915.35 (match) · 3500 history records