Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91d5…63ce crypto 1336 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,573 (+16%) realized +$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%580W / 756L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$278
7 days+$1,579
14 days+$1,493
30 days+$1,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +6.9% -3.3% 39% 27% +25.7%
≤30d 522 +38.7% +25.5% 47% 33% +15.9%
≤90d 1336 +7.8% -2.5% 43% 36% +6.8%
all 1336 +7.8% -2.5% 43% 36% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 36% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 28% -3.4%
15% -20.3% 22% -12.7%
20% -28.2% 18% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses580 / 756
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1336 / 1336
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1336 Trades
no open positions (146 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $135 +$274 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $173 −$167 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $90 −$85 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $89 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $204 +$298 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $173 +$279 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $287 −$275 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $18 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $34 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $45 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $29 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $106 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $70 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 3500 history records