Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d0…fb45 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-11%) realized −$379 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.6% -15.5% 62% 46% -10.4%
≤30d 24 -6.6% -15.5% 62% 46% -10.4%
≤90d 88 -27.2% -34.2% 44% 31% -21.9%
all 88 -27.2% -34.2% 44% 31% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 31% -21.9%
10% -40.5% 18% -29.4%
15% -46.2% 15% -36.2%
20% -51.5% 10% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage72d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 29¢ 100¢ $25 $86 +$61 (+243%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $113 −$100 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $205 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$67 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 20 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 20 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 20 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 20 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 20 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 20 $35 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 20 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 20 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 20 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $149 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $12 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.78 · official $59.91 · 270 history records