trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 100% | 0% | -5.3% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 100% | 0% | -5.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -44.8% | -50.1% | 50% | 0% | -20.6% |
| all | 16 | -17.2% | -25.1% | 56% | 31% | -14.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.1% | 31% | -14.5% |
| 10% | -32.3% | 25% | -22.7% |
| 15% | -38.8% | 6% | -30.2% |
| 20% | -44.8% | 0% | -37.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $400 | $399 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Jun 19 | $383 | +$18 | +5% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun | Apr 13 | $150 | −$120 | -80% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO1) | Apr 08 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? | Apr 08 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Apr 08 | $345 | +$9 | +2% |
| Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $139 | +$6 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 05 | $135 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 02 | $135 | $0 | -0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Nov 30 | $50 | −$7 | -13% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Nov 29 | $50 | +$14 | +28% |
| Boise State vs. Utah State | Nov 29 | $100 | −$23 | -23% |
| Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? | Nov 28 | $100 | +$39 | +39% |
| Saint Louis Billikens vs. Santa Clara Broncos | Nov 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Georgetown Hoyas vs. Dayton Flyers | Nov 28 | $40 | +$10 | +25% |
| Navy vs. Memphis | Nov 28 | $31 | +$4 | +11% |
| Chiefs vs. Cowboys | Nov 28 | $50 | +$12 | +24% |