Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x91cb…b903 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,392 (-64%) realized −$1,392 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR8%break-even

Win rate15%4W / 22L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$526

7 days−$678

14 days−$1,630

30 days−$1,630

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +8%

net ROI/market (all)-80.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-84.3%	-85.8%	12%	6%	-81.7%
≤30d	24	-76.3%	-78.6%	17%	8%	-84.6%
≤90d	24	-76.3%	-78.6%	17%	8%	-84.6%
all	26	-78.2%	-80.2%	15%	8%	-85.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-80.2%	8%	-85.0%
10%	-82.1%	8%	-86.4%
15%	-83.9%	8%	-87.7%
20%	-85.4%	4%	-88.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -78% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -65% → late -91% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$80 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,392

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)15%

Wins / losses4 / 22

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage589d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$130	−$97	-74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	+$1	+4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$72	−$70	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$67	−$65	-97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 13	$46	−$44	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 13	$102	+$36	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 10	$314	−$300	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 10	$312	−$300	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 10	$264	−$252	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 10	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 10	$105	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 10	$26	+$30	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 10	$58	−$5	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 10	$26	−$25	-95%
Will Trump get more votes than 2020?	Jan 14	$8	−$8	-100%
House control after 2024 election?	Jan 14	$50	−$50	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	40m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$41	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	15¢	$29	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$77	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$53	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	7¢	$30	4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$15	25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$46	2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026?	BUY No	29¢	$3	4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026?	BUY No	28¢	$7	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$46	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$102	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$314	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$312	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$264	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$105	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$106	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records