Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ca…83e8 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-39%) realized −$75 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$88
crypto 4% −$10
politics 4% −$7
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$27 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $153 $135 −$18 (-12%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 13h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.93 · official $145.73 · 10 history records