Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ca…2ab7 sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$508 (+6%) realized +$508 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$593
other 21% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -37.6% -43.5% 0% 0% -43.5%
≤30d 1 -37.6% -43.5% 0% 0% -43.5%
≤90d 83 +5.4% -4.7% 45% 45% -3.3%
all 88 +3.1% -6.8% 44% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 44% -4.2%
10% -15.7% 44% -13.4%
15% -23.8% 44% -21.8%
20% -31.3% 43% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$87 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$508
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 49
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage92d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 28 $77 −$29 -38%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $105 +$195 +185%
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 06 $150 +$151 +100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 06 $165 +$234 +142%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $82 −$25 -31%
Laura Siegemund vs. Sara Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 06 $92 +$143 +154%
Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Ryan Dickerson: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 05 $110 −$110 -100%
Santos: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Ryan Dickerson May 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $274 +$300 +109%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $90 −$90 -100%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 May 04 $270 −$270 -100%
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF: O/U 4.5 May 04 $120 +$90 +75%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: O/U 1.5 May 04 $225 −$225 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 04 $66 +$134 +203%
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $90 +$110 +122%
New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $126 −$126 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5 May 03 $85 +$115 +135%
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 May 03 $100 −$100 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 03 $175 −$175 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 May 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Aarhus GF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 2.5 May 03 $72 +$128 +178%
Aarhus GF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 1.5 May 03 $50 +$50 +100%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Paris FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5 May 03 $153 +$346 +226%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $108 −$108 -100%
AZ vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5 May 03 $66 +$134 +203%
Sparta Rotterdam vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 4.5 May 03 $172 −$172 -100%
FC Fredericia vs. FC København: O/U 4.5 May 03 $111 +$89 +80%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $183 −$183 -100%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 May 03 $99 +$201 +203%
Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5) May 03 $50 +$150 +300%
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $80 −$80 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 03 $50 +$50 +100%
Odense BK vs. Silkeborg IF: O/U 3.5 May 03 $90 +$110 +122%
Randers FC vs. Vejle BK: O/U 1.5 May 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5 May 03 $105 +$95 +90%
Hibernian FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Preston North End FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $84 −$84 -100%
US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Apr 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Venezia FC vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $74 −$74 -100%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $99 +$210 +212%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Odense BK vs. FC Fredericia: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $23 −$23 -100%
UC Sampdoria vs. Empoli FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $64 +$36 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $48 1h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 58¢ $55 41d
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 42d
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 43d
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 52d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 52d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $80 52d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 52d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $21 52d
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $301 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $400 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 29¢ $57 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 52d
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $130 52d
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $20 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 39¢ $79 52d
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 35¢ $1 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $1 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $3 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $3 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $8 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $9 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $9 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $9 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Karolina Pliskova 43¢ $9 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 722 history records