Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91c8…12f3 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1
other 23% $0
politics 6% +$2
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage454d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $58 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 24 $2 +$2 +68%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 25 $13 $0 -1%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 23 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 17h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $6 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $23 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $8 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $21 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $9 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $27 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $30 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $30 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $29 20d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $31.82 (match) · 87 history records