Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x91c7…b576 world 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,390 (-2%) realized −$3,145 · open +$755
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%175W / 64L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$16,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$3,658
other 9% +$578
politics 9% +$858
finance 5% +$356
crypto 2% +$625
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.0% -2.3% 64% 50% -8.2%
≤30d 65 +10.9% +0.3% 78% 38% -7.4%
≤90d 173 +11.6% +1.0% 73% 35% -9.1%
all 239 +19.3% +7.9% 73% 33% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 33% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 17% -13.3%
15% -11.8% 13% -21.7%
20% -20.5% 10% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$189 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$16,276
Realized−$3,145
Unrealized+$755
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses175 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions75
Markets (closed)239 / 310
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$367
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $3,178 $3,572 +$395 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $2,849 $3,042 +$194 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $1,322 $1,090 −$233 (-18%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $751 $784 +$32 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $704 $770 +$66 (+9%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 67¢ 82¢ $364 $450 +$87 (+24%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 69¢ 48¢ $630 $433 −$197 (-31%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 84¢ $344 $423 +$79 (+23%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $373 $392 +$19 (+5%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $359 $377 +$18 (+5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 80¢ 84¢ $269 $283 +$14 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 79¢ 82¢ $264 $276 +$12 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $194 $270 +$77 (+40%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $214 $250 +$35 (+16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $219 $221 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $182 $209 +$27 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $190 $196 +$6 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $155 $174 +$18 (+12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $164 $168 +$5 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $169 $166 −$3 (-2%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $161 $165 +$5 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $151 $155 +$4 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $129 $145 +$17 (+13%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $165 +$45 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $117 +$53 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $349 +$98 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $635 +$111 +18%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $94 +$5 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$70 -65%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $881 +$111 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$12 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $1,986 +$291 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $102 +$22 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $373 −$36 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 14 $65 +$207 +317%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $441 −$20 -4%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 13 $154 −$136 -88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $1,321 −$593 -45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $55 +$5 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $57 +$5 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 02 $24 +$16 +66%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 01 $8 +$5 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $262 −$43 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? Jun 01 $164 +$25 +15%
Will Trump say "Skedaddle" in May? Jun 01 $35 +$5 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $131 +$9 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $388 −$26 -7%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 01 $85 +$6 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $335 +$22 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $584 +$60 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $1,003 +$84 +8%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in May? May 29 $11 +$5 +43%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $18 +$3 +15%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $406 +$73 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $323 +$63 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? May 26 $285 +$25 +9%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $22 +$5 +25%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 26 $10 +$23 +224%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? May 26 $198 +$21 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 26 $64 +$96 +151%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 +$3 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 25 $82 +$12 +15%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $779 +$54 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $117 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $36 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $33 4m
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $36 5m
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 5m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $56 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $109 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $144 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? BUY No 98¢ $117 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $3 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 95¢ $104 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,275.90 · official $16,276.73 (match) · 3500 history records