Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x91c7…808f sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$15
other 38% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.6% +2.8% 90% 80% +5.6%
≤30d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 77% 68% -4.8%
≤90d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 77% 68% -4.8%
all 22 -2.2% -11.5% 77% 68% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 68% -4.8%
10% -20.0% 32% -13.9%
15% -27.7% 9% -22.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage16d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 +$20 +24%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $69 +$14 +21%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $56 +$14 +24%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$14 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $28 +$12 +44%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +46%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $13 +$2 +18%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Max Wiskandt Jun 02 $12 +$2 +17%
ITF Wuning: JiaYi Wang vs Han Shi Jun 02 $12 −$11 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $23 +$4 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $21 +$2 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $35 +$4 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $15 −$1 -8%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn Jun 01 $15 +$1 +5%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $12 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $104 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $84 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $84 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 78¢ $69 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $69 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 79¢ $56 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $56 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 68¢ $42 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $41 7h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen SELL FC Bayern Munchen 99¢ $41 7h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 68¢ $28 8h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 91¢ $28 8h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 77¢ $24 10h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $24 10h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 11h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 11h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $1 11h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $16 11h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $13 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 75¢ $24 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 70¢ $16 15d
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade SELL Timo Legout 56¢ $16 15d
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade BUY Timo Legout 46¢ $13 15d
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Max Wiskandt SELL Diego Dedura-Palomero 91¢ $13 15d
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Max Wiskandt BUY Diego Dedura-Palomero 77¢ $12 15d
ITF Wuning: JiaYi Wang vs Han Shi BUY Han Shi 62¢ $12 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $27 16d
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $27 16d
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 86¢ $23 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records