Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x91c7…24fa sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$176 (+21%) realized +$162 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$205
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.9% +8.5% 63% 63% +16.4%
≤30d 19 +19.9% +8.5% 63% 63% +16.4%
≤90d 19 +19.9% +8.5% 63% 63% +16.4%
all 19 +19.9% +8.5% 63% 63% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 63% +16.4%
10% -1.9% 63% +5.3%
15% -11.4% 63% -4.9%
20% -20.1% 58% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 43¢ 100¢ $25 $58 +$33 (+132%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 42¢ 61¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+45%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 32¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$11 +36%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $51 +$42 +83%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $55 +$67 +122%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $51 −$16 -31%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $101 +$53 +53%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$58 +115%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$30 +145%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $15 −$14 -93%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $36 +$58 +161%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$9 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 43¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 42¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 32¢ $34 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $41 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 8h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $10 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $20 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $51 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 37¢ $20 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 54¢ $51 19h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 97¢ $122 21h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 43¢ $55 22h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back $21 23h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 92¢ $30 23h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 60¢ $20 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 96¢ $155 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL Grind Back 34¢ $33 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $101 25h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 15¢ $10 25h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 20¢ $5 26h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 30¢ $31 27h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 34¢ $20 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $1 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $109 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $51 41h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 97¢ $78 41h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $51 41h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $50 42h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 40¢ $20 43h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 97¢ $16 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.73 · official $101.73 (match) · 47 history records