Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91c6…2f32 crypto 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,483 (-5%) realized −$1,488 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%113W / 150L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$181
14 days−$2,090
30 days−$1,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$3,363
other 20% −$122
sports 13% +$623
politics 0% −$54
world 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 33% -11.1%
≤30d 140 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 36% -17.1%
≤90d 263 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 39% -19.0%
all 263 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 39% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 39% -19.0%
10% -34.2% 32% -26.7%
15% -40.6% 27% -33.8%
20% -46.4% 21% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$66 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$1,488
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses113 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage46d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $370 −$364 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $600 −$230 -38%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $888 +$111 +12%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $350 −$17 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $498 −$390 -78%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $609 −$272 -45%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $326 +$223 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $765 +$303 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $743 +$22 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$62 -30%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 +$11 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$106 +103%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$125 +25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,113 +$648 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$53 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,155 +$197 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $516 +$294 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$26 -65%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $140 −$100 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 −$65 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$4 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$18 -61%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $66 −$48 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $105 +$16 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $207 −$207 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $222 −$222 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $515 −$515 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$9 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $48 −$38 -78%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$6 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$4 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$20 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$24 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $92 −$67 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$9 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $370 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $370 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $600 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $601 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $441 4h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 66¢ $334 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $107 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $498 4h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 68¢ $350 4h
Czechia to win the second half? SELL Yes 28¢ $335 4h
Czechia to win the second half? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 4h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $609 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $73 5h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $549 5h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 58¢ $326 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $325 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $299 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $143 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $70 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $765 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $765 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $743 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $142 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $216 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $209 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.00 · official $55.00 (match) · 685 history records