Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91c4…9dea crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$218
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$7
tech 31% −$1
crypto 24% −$46
sports 6% −$28
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -57.8% -61.8% 33% 17% -44.1%
≤30d 18 -57.8% -61.8% 33% 17% -44.1%
≤90d 19 -56.4% -60.5% 32% 16% -41.4%
all 30 -33.2% -39.5% 47% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 33% -12.5%
10% -45.3% 20% -20.9%
15% -50.6% 17% -28.5%
20% -55.4% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$34 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage542d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $91 +$23 +25%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? May 09 $400 −$124 -31%
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? Nov 05 $73 +$124 +170%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 06 $107 +$51 +48%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 28 $300 +$56 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 26 $71 +$37 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $113 +$65 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21? Mar 19 $58 +$7 +12%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $547 +$71 +13%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Feb 26 $162 −$162 -100%
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Award Feb 11 $190 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $68 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $1 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 3¢ $2 26h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 8¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $28 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 27h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $57 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $15 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $26 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $30 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 93 history records