Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91be…dbd5 sports 18 markets active 3d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$138 (+1%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$88
other 30% +$1
sports 17% +$234
world 15% +$4
culture 3% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 0% -0.6%
≤30d 5 -12.6% -20.9% 80% 0% -22.4%
≤90d 18 +8.6% -1.7% 61% 11% -8.5%
all 18 +8.6% -1.7% 61% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 11% -8.5%
10% -11.1% 11% -17.3%
15% -19.7% 11% -25.2%
20% -27.6% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,780) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage87d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 21? May 21 $15 +$1 +9%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) May 21 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 20 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? Mar 20 $1,822 +$6 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $321 −$33 -10%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Mar 20 $1,820 +$4 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 20 $304 +$1 +0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 20 $1,748 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Mar 20 $116 −$5 -4%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 Mar 20 $1,921 +$2 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $157 −$35 -22%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16 Mar 20 $1,780 +$4 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2 Mar 20 $1,793 −$20 -1%
Panthers vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5 Mar 20 $36 +$60 +170%
Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5 Mar 20 $180 +$166 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $15 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 21? BUY No 92¢ $15 27d
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) BUY Valencia CF 91¢ $12 34d
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 50d
Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? SELL Yes $28 88d
Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? SELL Yes $1 88d
Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? BUY Yes $31 88d
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1,828 88d
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,822 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $20 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $70 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $107 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $10 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $54 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $14 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $87 88d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $118 88d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL No 95¢ $1,824 88d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY No 95¢ $246 88d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY No 95¢ $971 88d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY No 95¢ $604 88d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $29 88d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $34 88d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $62 88d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1,748 88d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1,189 88d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 91¢ $559 88d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes $47 88d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes $35 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.00 · official $48.00 (match) · 63 history records