Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x91bc…28d6 sports 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,331 (+8%) realized +$2,341 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%288W / 226L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,090now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$1,066
14 days−$631
30 days+$1,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2,466
crypto 23% −$310
other 6% +$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 57% +12.0%
≤30d 215 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 53% +4.0%
≤90d 514 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 55% -0.8%
all 514 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 55% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 55% -0.8%
10% -11.8% 54% -10.3%
15% -20.4% 51% -19.0%
20% -28.2% 45% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$1,090
Realized+$2,341
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses288 / 226
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions19
Markets (closed)514 / 536
History coverage89d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $400 $409 +$9 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 44¢ 44¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 53¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 44¢ 42¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ 55¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 50¢ 48¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 48¢ 46¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ 60¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians 54¢ 52¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $40 +$23 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $40 +$27 +67%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $40 +$26 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $41 +$43 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $40 +$26 +65%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $41 +$35 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $41 +$35 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $41 +$28 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$21 +52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$22 +55%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $40 +$24 +59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 +$39 +97%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$38 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 +$39 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $41 +$30 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $81 +$56 +68%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 +$57 +140%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $81 −$80 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $41 +$28 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $607 +$373 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $353 +$161 +46%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $102 +$136 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$36 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $122 −$120 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $81 −$80 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $81 +$57 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $204 +$421 +206%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $152 +$121 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $81 −$57 -70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$79 +98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $122 −$7 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $41 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $40 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $41 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $41 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $41 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $41 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $41 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $40 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $41 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $41 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 42¢ $41 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $41 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $41 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $41 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $41 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $41 1h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 4h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 6h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $40 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $63 13h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Jasmine Paolini 13¢ $21 21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 27h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 48¢ $41 28h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $41 28h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $40 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $41 28h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 58¢ $41 28h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $41 28h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 60¢ $40 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,090.39 · official $1,090.40 (match) · 1212 history records